Poll: Candy Tax Repeal Gains Ground, Four Initiatives Losing
A new Elway Poll shows Initiative 1107, which would repeal temporary sales taxes on candy, soda, and bottled water, has gained support over the last two months, going from 47 percent “definitely” or “probably” favoring the measure in September, to 54 percent “definitely” or “probably” supporting it.
In addition, support for the high-earners’ income tax, Initiative 1098, has slipped substantially, going from 46 percent support in June to 41 percent this month.
Support for privatizing liquor and workers’ compensation insurance has also fallen, as has support for Tim Eyman-backed I-1053, which would require a two-thirds majority of the state legislature, which has gone from 65 percent support in June to 49 percent in October.
Here’s the full breakdown, followed by some analysis from the report.
Initiative 1107, repealing sales tax on candy, soda, and bottled water:
Definitely for: 40 percent
Probably for: 14 percent
Probably against: 16 percent
Definitely against: 17 percent
Undecided: 13 percent
Men (59 percent), Republicans (65 percent) and Independents (62 percent) were more likely to support repealing the taxes than women (50 percent) and Democrats (41 percent).
Initiative 1053, requiring a two-thirds majority vote of the legislature to raise taxes:
Definitely for: 28 percent
Probably for: 21 percent
Probably against: 19 percent
Definitely against: 15 percent
Undecided: 17 percent
The percentage of voters who said they were undecided declined substantially (from 25 percent in September). Most of those former undecideds went to the opposition camp, which grew from 27 percent in September to 34 percent this month.
Most Republicans (61 percent) supported 1053, as did half (50 percent) of Independents. Democrats were split, with 40 percent in support and 39 percent opposed.
Initiative 1098, establishing an income tax on individuals making more than $200,000 a year (and couples making more than $400,000)
Definitely for: 25 percent
Probably for: 16 percent
Probably against: 19 percent
Definitely against: 29 percent
Undecided: 11 percent
Support for I-1098 has slipped from a high of 46 percent in June. Meanwhile, people who said they were more likely to vote in November were also more likely to oppose 1098—39 percent of “perfect voters” supported the measure, compared to 67 percent of those who just registered for the first time.
Not surprisingly, 48 percent of voters who made less than $50,000 supported 1098, while 39 percent of voters making more than $75,000 did.
Initiative 1100, privatizing liquor sales, dismantling barriers between distributors and retailers, allowing volume discounts, and preserving the state tax on liquor:
Definitely for: 26 percent
Probably for: 16 percent
Probably against: 19 percent
Definitely against: 25 percent
Undecided: 14 percent
I-1100 still enjoys more support than the other liquor-privatization initiative, I-1100. However, formerly undecided voters are turning against the measure, which had a 34 percent “no” vote (and 21 percent undecided) back in September.
Private-sector employees are more likely to vote in favor of I-1100 (50 percent yes) than public employees (29 percent yes).
Initiative 1105, privatizing liquor sales, preserving the wall between distributors and retailers, and eliminating all state liquor taxes:
Definitely for: 21 percent
Probably for: 15 percent
Probably against: 19 percent
Definitely against: 26 percent
Undecided: 18 percent
Although independents were evenly split on I-1100, they opposed I-1105, with 47 percent saying they’d vote no, and just 35 percent saying they’d vote yes.
While the youngest voters (18-35) were more likely to favor 1105 over 1100 (44 vs. 38 percent), the oldest voters (over 65) were more likely to favor 1100 than 1105 (43 vs. 34 percent). And 33 percent of all voters said they planned to vote for both initiatives.
Initiative 1082, privatizing workers’ compensation insurance:
Definitely for: 14 percent
Probably for: 17 percent
Probably against: 19 percent
Definitely against: 21 percent
Undecided: 29 percent
People remain utterly perplexed by this complicated initiative, with 29 percent still undecided (down from 38 percent last month). Independents and Democrats both opposed the initiative (45 percent and 27 percent no, respectively), while Republicans supported it 37 to 32 percent.
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