Economic News - Clark County/SW Washington

Economic Forecast as reported in the Columbian News Paper, Sunday 21 January 2007

Jobs - 3,100 new jobs in 2007 for Clark County.

• preliminary estimates indicate that Clark County's non farm employment grew by 4,400 jobs, or 3.3. percent in 2006. By the end of this year, look for around 3,100
• Construction, could see 400 jobs.
• Total number of factory jobs will likely go up slightly.

Tourism:

• Two new properties in Battle Ground and east Vancouver will increase hotel room inventory in Clark County
• A 10 percent growth in direct travel spend
• Tourism jobs are projected to be 10,800

Home Sales: Homes sales are poised to make a turnaround

• In 2006, homes sales are estimated at 10,450, a 21 percent decline form 2005. In addition, new home sales as a percentage of the total number of sales has declined from 29 percent in 2004, to 23 percent in 2005, and 20 percent in 2006.
• In 2007, thanks to more inventory, stable interest rates and increasing demand homes sales could match 2005, approx 13,000.

Economic Development: Numbers look positive:

• Several companies will make relocation announcements regarding Clark County projects in the first quarter that could result in an estimated 500 new jobs.
• technology and knowledge-based businesses will continue to drive strong shorter-term job growth in Clark County
• Groundwork laid at Washington State University Vancouver and this year through the Washington Technology Center is expected to support long-term innovation expansion in SW Washington.

Retail: More choices, gas prices lure shoppers:

• Clark County retail sales growth will continue to outpace population growth due to increased shopping opportunities. A store-only sales increase of 11 percent to 13 percent in 2007 is likely.
• Sales leakage to Oregon will decline with the opening of new stores in Clark County.
• One million square feet of new retail space will be completed or will be under construction during 2007
• Expect new retail projects in Washougal, Ridgefield, Woodland and Battle Ground.

Energy: Gas, Electricity should fall...

• Energy commodity prices generally could decline given normal weather and no major global disruptions.
• Natural gas markets are poised for a possible price collapse with storage levels higher than at any time in the past 1o years. Natural gas prices to consumers are likely to be stable or will decline.
• Electricity prices at the commodity level will tend to follow natural gas prices lower. Consumer prices also might decrease.

Health Care: Look for job growth, improved access:

• Capital expansion by Clark County's health care industry will continue to drive overall industry employment growth this year, up an estimated 4.5 percent.
• However, a region-wide shortage of nurses will also continue. The statewide vacancy rate for nursing positions reached 12 percent in 2006. Approximately 1,600 nursing jobs remain open.

Mortgages: Home sales should fall, rates to inch up:

• Long term fixed mortgage rates, while expected to rise over the new year, will very likely not get up to even 7% and the increases should not be seen until midyear or later.
• Expect one-year adjustable rate mortgages to max at 5.5 percent and longer term five-year Treasury-indexed ARMS to stay under 6 percent.
• Home sales will continue to decline about 8 percent for both new and existing homes and there will be continued slowing in home prices appreciation.
• We will continue to see a housing recession with more opportunity for buyers.

Snow in the "Couve"

Yes, we had a great day of snow in "the Couve". Vancouver, Washington is better know for the rain, but, occasionally we do get a little snow...For most it is a time to stay home and enjoy the view and winter activities...others try to challenge the elements...

Vancouver had 3" of snow , Hockinson, it was reported, had about 5" of snow...what was going on in your part of "the Couve"?

Must-Have Features forToday's Home Buyer...

Boomers or Bust!

1. No Stairs - Single story homes, first-floor master suites and /or personal elevators. As baby boomers age, they'd rather not do stairs .
2. Fireplaces - they've always wanted to have one. "It's a reward for their station in life:
3. Low maintenance surfaces - such as granite, quartz and Corian.
4. Pedestrian friendly communities - with walking trails and amenities conductive to fitness and social interaction in the neighborhood.
5. Emphasis on quality and detailing - more than square footage. It's the McMansion theory in reverse. Baby boomers are willing to trade some space for (better) features.
6. Flexible floor plans - Rooms and spaces that can adapt to changing needs and circumstances, that are multi-functional, perhaps with sliding doors and movable partitions.
7. A keeping room - Living rooms are giving way to great rooms, a keeping room provides and intimate space for families to gather near the kitchen are. "You can put a sofa and a couple of chairs in there and a fireplace.
8. Private outdoor space - this could be a deck or patio, "Someone coined the phrase, "Does it pass the smooch test?"
9. Accessible storage - Cabinets and shelves placed at heights that can be reached without a stepladder and that have pullouts, lazy susan's and shallow shelving to keep them within easy reach.
10. Ample wall space for photo gallery - of all the kids, grandkids, siblings, and parents who may have passed away is helpful.
11. Radiant floor heating - Baby boomers may have more health issues like asthma or emphysema. "Forced air becomes problematic - you don't want dust blowing around."

Professional Builder surveyed six experts - architects, home industry trend experts, and real-estate brokers and designers - to get their take on the must-have features for today's home buyers.

Come Walk with Me!!!!

A new year and a new beginning...do you want to train to walk the 2007 Portland Marathon or just get some great fellowship and walking training....Come walk with us we begin again this month....click on the highlighted area or photo and fill out your registration form...

Buyers Agency

A byproduct of a buyer-friendly real estate market, widely accessible information on home-buying process, and easy-to-use real estate listing Web sites, may buyers believe they can navigate their purchase themselves. Creating a separate breed of Buyer's unrepresented by a buyer's agent or BUBBAs.

They think they can buy without a professional. It's like when people have aches and pains and say, "I can go to WebMD and figure out (a remedy).

According to the National Association of Realtors, 2006 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers. 23 percent of homebuyers, last year, didn't use a real estate practitioner to make their purchase, up form 19 percent in 2005. Most of those buyers -- 13 percent in 2006 -- bought directly from a builder or a builder's agent, the research shows, and 1 percent bought through a foreclosure or trustee sale. Leaving 9% who bought directly from the previous owner.

Some first time buyers mistakenly think they'll have to pay the commission if they use a buyer's agent.

Some think that they will get a better deal...however, Buyers shouldn't make the assumption that they'll get a better deal from the Seller just because they're not represented by a real estate agent. Why would the Seller ever pass the savings on to the Buyer???

An Agent can help in finding the right home, help with price negotiations, help with paperwork, help in determining what comparable homes are selling for, and help determining how much they can afford.

(as published in Realtor Magazine)