Economic News - Clark County/SW Washington

Economic Forecast as reported in the Columbian News Paper, Sunday 21 January 2007

Jobs - 3,100 new jobs in 2007 for Clark County.

• preliminary estimates indicate that Clark County's non farm employment grew by 4,400 jobs, or 3.3. percent in 2006. By the end of this year, look for around 3,100
• Construction, could see 400 jobs.
• Total number of factory jobs will likely go up slightly.

Tourism:

• Two new properties in Battle Ground and east Vancouver will increase hotel room inventory in Clark County
• A 10 percent growth in direct travel spend
• Tourism jobs are projected to be 10,800

Home Sales: Homes sales are poised to make a turnaround

• In 2006, homes sales are estimated at 10,450, a 21 percent decline form 2005. In addition, new home sales as a percentage of the total number of sales has declined from 29 percent in 2004, to 23 percent in 2005, and 20 percent in 2006.
• In 2007, thanks to more inventory, stable interest rates and increasing demand homes sales could match 2005, approx 13,000.

Economic Development: Numbers look positive:

• Several companies will make relocation announcements regarding Clark County projects in the first quarter that could result in an estimated 500 new jobs.
• technology and knowledge-based businesses will continue to drive strong shorter-term job growth in Clark County
• Groundwork laid at Washington State University Vancouver and this year through the Washington Technology Center is expected to support long-term innovation expansion in SW Washington.

Retail: More choices, gas prices lure shoppers:

• Clark County retail sales growth will continue to outpace population growth due to increased shopping opportunities. A store-only sales increase of 11 percent to 13 percent in 2007 is likely.
• Sales leakage to Oregon will decline with the opening of new stores in Clark County.
• One million square feet of new retail space will be completed or will be under construction during 2007
• Expect new retail projects in Washougal, Ridgefield, Woodland and Battle Ground.

Energy: Gas, Electricity should fall...

• Energy commodity prices generally could decline given normal weather and no major global disruptions.
• Natural gas markets are poised for a possible price collapse with storage levels higher than at any time in the past 1o years. Natural gas prices to consumers are likely to be stable or will decline.
• Electricity prices at the commodity level will tend to follow natural gas prices lower. Consumer prices also might decrease.

Health Care: Look for job growth, improved access:

• Capital expansion by Clark County's health care industry will continue to drive overall industry employment growth this year, up an estimated 4.5 percent.
• However, a region-wide shortage of nurses will also continue. The statewide vacancy rate for nursing positions reached 12 percent in 2006. Approximately 1,600 nursing jobs remain open.

Mortgages: Home sales should fall, rates to inch up:

• Long term fixed mortgage rates, while expected to rise over the new year, will very likely not get up to even 7% and the increases should not be seen until midyear or later.
• Expect one-year adjustable rate mortgages to max at 5.5 percent and longer term five-year Treasury-indexed ARMS to stay under 6 percent.
• Home sales will continue to decline about 8 percent for both new and existing homes and there will be continued slowing in home prices appreciation.
• We will continue to see a housing recession with more opportunity for buyers.